A new poll for the June 6, 2006 California Gubernatorial Democratic primary showed state Treasurer Phil Angelides opening up a huge lead over state Controller Steve Westly. From Survey USA, the poll shows Angelides up by twelve points:
Steve Westly (DLC) 32% Phil Angelides (D) 44%
Despite the fact that Westly has wasted $34,500,000.00 of his own money trying to buy the race, Westly has been falling in the polls for a month. It is also important to note that Westly has only raised $1.5 million, which suggests the support he does have is weak support, not committed to pushing him over the top during the final ten days of the campaign. Smart Westly supporters will begin jumping ship to join the side of the next governor of California, their lack of committment for Westly compared with their ability to read polls makes it the smart move. I mean, who wants to go down on a sinking ship when you aren't invested in the voyage?
If undecideds break at a similiar margin, Angelides could easily pull off a double digit victory. But that fails to take into consideration GOTV and the overwhelming advantage Angelides enjoyes with his dominant political support that has built an army including 23,000 small donors who are invested in seeing his victory. Most of the slate mail and doorhangers organizations are dropping are pushing Angelides. The local clubs turning out the vote are pushing Angelides. Westly may have a big checkbook, but Angelides has actual people supporting him.
The fact Westly has been falling like a rock in the polls explains why Westly broke his promise about going negative and why Westly's online ads are misleading: desperate moves by a losing campaign.
Even more troublesome for Westly's campaign, there is little room to escalate. Westly already has TV saturation, he has already gone extremely negative, and he doesn't have time to build a field organization that can compete with the efforts supporting Angelides.
Angelides is peaking perfectly, the key at this point is for his supporters to keep up the intensity and push twice as hard in the last ten days as they have in the last month. Get plugged in to help in the final push!